The Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission has released an independent resource adequacy analysis it commissioned from Synapse Energy Economics, working with Mondre Energy and Aspen Technologies, that models Pennsylvania and PJM supply and demand through 2040.¹ The study grew out of the Commission’s November 2024 Technical Conference on Resource Adequacy and uses capacity expansion modeling (EnCompass) paired with probabilistic reliability modeling (SERVM) across three futures: a Reference case tied to PJM’s load forecast with gradually improving resource availability; a High Load and Low Supply case assuming heavier data center and EV growth with tightly constrained new build; and a No New Data Centers case removing all new data center load from 2027 forward.
The Reliability Findings
PJM plans to a loss-of-load expectation of 0.1, the industry-standard one-day-in-ten-years benchmark. The consultants project a 2030 LOLE of 0.59 in the Reference case — roughly six times the planning criterion — and 13.20 in the High Load and Low Supply case, which implies more than thirteen days of loss-of-load events in a single year. Only the No New Data Centers case clears the benchmark, at 0.05. The modeling attributes the deterioration primarily to large-load additions concentrated in 2030, and in the worst case projects that between two and nineteen percent of PJM-wide demand would go unserved in the years from 2031 through 2040, with little ability to lean on neighboring regions facing the same pressures.
What It Means for Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania holds about 23 percent of PJM’s generating capacity today, the largest share in the footprint, but that share declines to 20 to 21 percent by 2030 and 14 to 17 percent by 2040 as more new build lands in states such as Virginia. In-state additions through 2030 are mostly solar and battery storage, with gas combined-cycle capacity dominating the later years, while three to four gigawatts of coal retire by 2040. Notably, the Commonwealth’s long-standing position as a net electricity exporter erodes in every scenario and flips to net importer by the late 2030s under the high-load case. For generators, large load customers, and existing ratepayers, the study sharpens the questions already before the Commission and the General Assembly on siting, interconnection timing, and who pays for the capacity that load growth requires.
¹ Synapse Energy Economics, Assessing Electricity Resource Adequacy in Pennsylvania and PJM, prepared for the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (Sept. 14, 2026) available at: https://www.puc.pa.gov/media/4044/2026_assessing_electricity_resource_adequacy_in_pa_and_pjm.pdf.